KEY HEADLINES & INSIGHTS

Supported by the Bank of Ghana, a groundbreaking credit scoring system has been launched to address longstanding challenges in lending. (Daily Graphic, 2024)

The Ghana Fixed Income Market experienced a substantial increase in trading volume on Friday, November 8, reaching GH₵973 million—the highest daily volume recorded since October 16.

Ghana has increased its cocoa farmgate price for the second time this season to boost farmer incomes, matching Côte d’Ivoire’s recent increase to $3,062.

New oil wells boost Ghana’s petroleum revenue to a 10.7 per cent increase in output from H1 2023’s production volume of 22,452,078.81 barrels and a record high for the country’s petroleum receipts. (Public Interest and Accountability Committee (PIAC), 2024)

GHANA INFLATION RATE UPDATE

This week, the Ghana Statistical Service announced the inflation rate for October 2024. The report indicated that Ghana’s annual consumer inflation rose for the second consecutive month to 22.1%, an increase from 21.5% in the preceding month. It constituted the highest in four months, coinciding with the ongoing weakening of the cedi. Food inflation increased to 22.8% from 22.1%, propelled by a 72.9% rise in egg prices and a 91.8% escalation in dried pepper prices. Non-food inflation rose to 21.5% from 20.9%. In October, consumer prices rose by 0.9%, following a 2.8% increase in the prior month.

PRIMARY DEBT MARKET ISSUANCE WEEK

In the latest trading week, interest rates on Government of Ghana (GoG) Treasury notes climbed across all tenors, indicating significant investor demand for short-term securities and likely reflecting tighter liquidity conditions. The 91-day T-bill rate jumped by 26.49 basis points, increasing from 26.5644% to 26.8293%. Similarly, the 182-day T-bill also saw a gain of 9.15 basis points, climbing from 27.5848% to 27.6763%. The 364-day T-bill likewise saw a gain of 9.05 basis points, climbing from 29.0379% to 29.1284%.

_{Source(s): Bank of Ghana}

GHANA FIXED INCOME MARKET VOLUME TRADED

The Ghana Fixed Income Market closed the week with a total volume traded of GH₵ 3.71 billion. A total of 5,832 trades were made of which 96.54% were Treasury bills, and 1.82% were Corporate Bond and 1.18% were New Government of Ghana (GoG) Bonds and Notes.

Starting at GH₵ 768 million on November 4, trading was primarily driven by Treasury Bills, Corporate Bonds and New GoG Bonds and Notes. This volume dipped to GH₵ 544 million on November 5, mostly attributed to Treasury Bills and Corporate Bonds.

November 6 saw an inch up in volume, led by Treasury Bills to close at GH₵700. Subsequently, trading volumes inched up to GH₵727 million on November 7, dominated by Treasury Bills and Sell/Buy Back Trades. The week concluded with a notable surge to GH₵973 million on November 8, where Sell/Buy Back trades and Treasury Bills and New GoG Bonds and Notes were primary contributors.

Week’s Ghana Fixed Income Market Total Volume Traded

EQUITY MARKET

This week, trading on the local stock exchange reflected a downturn performance, with total share volume decline by 56.64% to   2,478,901 shares, down from last week’s 5,717,593 shares. The total traded value dipped by 89.80%, reaching GH₵ 6.28 million, indicating higher-value transactions. Market capitalization experienced a slight increase, closing at GH₵ 103.76 billion, up 1.79% from the previous week.

Week’s Equities Top Gainers & Laggards

In terms of market indices, the GSE Composite Index (GSE-CI) closed at 4,629.10, showing a weekly gain of 2.2% and a monthly gain of 6.5%, and an overall year-to-date gain of 47.88%. Meanwhile, the GSE Financial Stocks Index (GSE-FSI) also increased to 2,289.72 points, posting a slight weekly increase of 1.12%, a monthly rise of 3.92%, and a year-to-date gain of 20.41%.

_{Source(s): Ghana Stock Exchange}

_{Source(s): African Markets, AFX Kwayisi}

COMMODITY MARKET

In the latest trading session, global commodity prices reflected mixed sentiment across key markets, as observed in movements in gold, Brent crude oil, and cocoa prices.

Gold posted a downturn, with prices slipping from USD 2,736.2 to USD 2,684.5 per troy ounce, marking a second consecutive decline as markets braced for US inflation data and a series of Federal Reserve speeches this week, to gauge the US interest rate path in light of the second Trump presidency.

Brent crude oil saw marginal increase, with its price shifting from USD 73.05 to USD 73.82 per barrel. Additionally, concerns over supply disruptions from storm Rafael in the US Gulf of Mexico have eased. Meanwhile, uncertainty around Trump’s policies clouds the global outlook, though potential sanctions on OPEC members.

In contrast, cocoa prices dipped moving from USD 7,295.3 to USD 7,118.6 per ton. Ghana has raised its cocoa farmgate price to align with Côte d’Ivoire’s recent increase, marking the second price hike this season to strengthen farmer incomes. the new price of GH₵49,600 per metric ton—equivalent to $3,062—brings Ghana’s rate in line with Côte d’Ivoire, the world’s leading cocoa producer.

_{Source(s): Trading Economics}

CURRENCY MARKET

The Ghanaian cedi has generally depreciated, showing mixed performance against major foreign currencies. The exchange rate against the US dollar, marginally inched up from GHS 16.30 to GHS 16.35. The cedi slightly increase against the Euro, with the EUR/GHS rate decreasing from GHS 17.69 to GHS 17.50. Additionally, the GBP/GHS rate declined marginally from GHS 21.11 to GHS 21.09.

_{Source(s): Bank of Ghana}